A Hybrid Fuzzy TOPSIS – Best Worst Method for Risk Prioritization in Megaprojects
Abstract
Megaprojects are usually complex and in many cases encounter failure in terms of finish late or overspent. This study aims to investigate the critical risk factors behind these projects as well as their priority. Project risk management is a mature research stream. But when focus on megaprojects the amount of research decreases significantly. This research provides a hierarchy of risk structure in Tehran-Rasht railway megaproject and prioritizes the risk factors through a two-phase methodology. This method is a new hybrid MCDM technique consist of group fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy Best-Worst Method. BWM is the latest MCDM technique which in this paper, its fuzzy version combined with fuzzy TOPSIS is employed. This research also considers all the project success criteria including time, cost and quality simultaneously and calculates the risk priority Index (RPI) accordingly. The results imply that quality is the most important project success factor and the risk elements with greater impact on project quality, get higher PRI. The identified and ranked risk factors help practitioners and academics to follow the subsequent steps of the risk management process of Iranian transportation megaprojects.
Keywords
References
Larson, E.W. and Gray, C.F., “IEEE Guide--Adoption of the Project Management Institute (PMI(R)) Standard A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK (®) Guide)--Fourth Edition” (2015). doi:10.1109/ieeestd.2011.6086685.
Davies, Andrew, Mark Dodgson, David Gann, and Sam MacAulay. "Five rules for managing large, complex projects." MIT Sloan Management Review 59, no. 1 (2017): 73-78.
Ernest and Young. 2014, Spotlight on oil and gas megaprojects. Available (May 2019): https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-spotlight-on-oil-and-gas-megaprojects/$FILE/EY-spotlight-on-oil-and-gas-megaprojects.pdf.
Boateng, Prince, Zhen Chen, and Stephen O. Ogunlana. “Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation” (April 26, 2017). doi:10.1108/9781786358301.
Salling, Kim Bang, and Steen Leleur. “Accounting for the Inaccuracies in Demand Forecasts and Construction Cost Estimations in Transport Project Evaluation.” Transport Policy 38 (February 2015): 8–18. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.11.006.
Guo, Sen, and Haoran Zhao. “Fuzzy Best-Worst Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method and Its Applications.” Knowledge-Based Systems 121 (April 2017): 23–31. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2017.01.010.
Rezaei, Jafar. “Best-Worst Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method.” Omega 53 (June 2015): 49–57. doi: 10.1016/ j.omega.2014.11.009.
Rezaei, Jafar, Thomas Nispeling, Joseph Sarkis, and Lori Tavasszy. “A Supplier Selection Life Cycle Approach Integrating Traditional and Environmental Criteria Using the Best Worst Method.” Journal of Cleaner Production 135 (November 2016): 577–588. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.125.
Chen, Chen-Tung, Ching-Torng Lin, and Sue-Fn Huang. “A Fuzzy Approach for Supplier Evaluation and Selection in Supply Chain Management.” International Journal of Production Economics 102, no. 2 (August 2006): 289–301. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2005.03.009.
Beikkhakhian, Yokabed, Mohammad Javanmardi, Mahdi Karbasian, and Bijan Khayambashi. “The Application of ISM Model in Evaluating Agile Suppliers Selection Criteria and Ranking Suppliers Using Fuzzy TOPSIS-AHP Methods.” Expert Systems with Applications 42, no. 15–16 (September 2015): 6224–6236. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.02.035.
Boran, Fatih Emre, Serkan Genç, Mustafa Kurt, and Diyar Akay. “A Multi-Criteria Intuitionistic Fuzzy Group Decision Making for Supplier Selection with TOPSIS Method.” Expert Systems with Applications 36, no. 8 (October 2009): 11363–11368. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2009.03.039.
Lima Junior, Francisco Rodrigues, Lauro Osiro, and Luiz Cesar Ribeiro Carpinetti. “A Comparison between Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS Methods to Supplier Selection.” Applied Soft Computing 21 (August 2014): 194–209. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2014.03.014.
Igoulalene, Idris, Lyes Benyoucef, and Manoj Kumar Tiwari. “Novel Fuzzy Hybrid Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Approaches for the Strategic Supplier Selection Problem.” Expert Systems with Applications 42, no. 7 (May 2015): 3342–3356. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2014.12.014.
Karsak, E. Ertugrul, and Mehtap Dursun. “An Integrated Fuzzy MCDM Approach for Supplier Evaluation and Selection.” Computers & Industrial Engineering 82 (April 2015): 82–93. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2015.01.019.
Scott, James, William Ho, Prasanta K. Dey, and Srinivas Talluri. “A Decision Support System for Supplier Selection and Order Allocation in Stochastic, Multi-Stakeholder and Multi-Criteria Environments.” International Journal of Production Economics 166 (August 2015): 226–237. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.11.008.
Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl. “Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?” Journal of the American Planning Association 68, no. 3 (September 30, 2002): 279–295. doi:10.1080/01944360208976273.
Love, Peter E.D., Chun-Pung Sing, Xiangyu Wang, Zahir Irani, and Didibhuku W. Thwala. “Overruns in Transportation Infrastructure Projects.” Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 10, no. 2 (August 23, 2012): 141–159. doi:10.1080/15732479.2012.715173.
Lind, Hans, and Fredrik Brunes. “Explaining Cost Overruns in Infrastructure Projects: a New Framework with Applications to Sweden.” Construction Management and Economics 33, no. 7 (July 3, 2015): 554–568. doi:10.1080/01446193.2015.1064983.
Siemiatycki, Matti. “The Making and Impacts of a Classic Text in Megaproject Management: The Case of Cost Overrun Research.” International Journal of Project Management 36, no. 2 (February 2018): 362–371. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.07.003.
Fallahnejad, Mohammad Hossein. “Delay Causes in Iran Gas Pipeline Projects.” International Journal of Project Management 31, no. 1 (January 2013): 136–146. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.06.003.
Boateng, P. Chen, Z. Ogunlana, S. "A conceptual system dynamic model to describe the impacts of critical weather conditions in megaproject construction", Journal of Construction Project Management Innovation., Vol. 2 (2012): 208–224.
Vu, Hong Anh, Viet Hung Cu, Lian Xing Min, and Jian Qiong Wang. “Risk Analysis of Schedule Delays in International Highway Projects in Vietnam Using a Structural Equation Model.” Engineering, Construction, and Architectural Management 24, no. 6 (November 20, 2017): 1018–1039. doi:10.1108/ecam-06-2016-0138.
Yang, Jyh-Bin, and Pei-Rei Wei. “Causes of Delay in the Planning and Design Phases for Construction Projects.” Journal of Architectural Engineering 16, no. 2 (June 2010): 80–83. doi:10.1061/(asce)1076-0431(2010)16:2(80).
Caldas, Carlos, and Ashish Gupta. “Critical Factors Impacting the Performance of Mega-Projects.” Engineering, Construction, and Architectural Management 24, no. 6 (November 20, 2017): 920–934. doi:10.1108/ecam-05-2016-0117.
Boateng, Prince, Zhen Chen, and Stephen O. Ogunlana. “An Analytical Network Process Model for Risks Prioritisation in Megaprojects.” International Journal of Project Management 33, no. 8 (November 2015): 1795–1811. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.08.007.
Brookes, Naomi J. “Mankind and Mega-Projects.” Frontiers of Engineering Management 1, no. 3 (2014): 241. doi:10.15302/j-fem-2014033.
Dimitriou, Harry T., Nicholas Low, Sophie Sturup, Genevieve Zembri, Elisabeth Campagnac, George Kaparos, Pantoleon Skayannis, et al. “What Constitutes a ‘successful’ Mega Transport project? Planning Theory & Practice 15, no. 3 (July 3, 2014): 389–430. doi:10.1080/14649357.2014.935084.
Irimia-Diéguez, Ana I., Alvaro Sanchez-Cazorla, and Rafaela Alfalla-Luque. “Risk Management in Megaprojects.” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 119 (March 2014): 407–416. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.046.
Long, Nguyen Duy, Stephen Ogunlana, Truong Quang, and Ka Chi Lam. “Large Construction Projects in Developing Countries: a Case Study from Vietnam.” International Journal of Project Management 22, no. 7 (October 2004): 553–561. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.03.004.
Mentis, Mike. “Managing Project Risks and Uncertainties.” Forest Ecosystems 2, no. 1 (January 28, 2015). doi:10.1186/s40663-014-0026-z.
Qazi, Abroon, John Quigley, Alex Dickson, and Konstantinos Kirytopoulos. “Project Complexity and Risk Management (ProCRiM): Towards Modelling Project Complexity Driven Risk Paths in Construction Projects.” International Journal of Project Management 34, no. 7 (October 2016): 1183–1198. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.05.008.
Renuka, S. M., C. Umarani, and S. Kamal. "A review on critical risk factors in the life cycle of construction projects." Journal of Civil Engineering Research 4, no. 2A (2014): 31-36.
Spirkova, Daniela. "Management of megaproject during the turbulent period of economic and political transformation in Slovakia." Journal of US-China Public Administration 11, no. 9 (2014): 750-762.
Hamzaoui, Fethi, Franck Taillandier, Rasool Mehdizadeh, Denys Breysse, and Amine Allal. “Evolutive Risk Breakdown Structure for Managing Construction Project Risks: Application to a Railway Project in Algeria.” European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering 19, no. 2 (July 18, 2014): 238–262. doi:10.1080/19648189.2014.939416.
Merrow, Edward W., ed. “Industrial Megaprojects” (January 2, 2012). doi:10.1002/9781119201045.
Flyvbjerg, Bent. “Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built - And What We Can Do About It.” SSRN Electronic Journal (2009). doi:10.2139/ssrn.2229768.
Al Nahyan, Moza Tahnoon, Yaser E. Hawas, Mohsin Raza, Hamad Aljassmi, Munjed A. Maraqa, Basil Basheerudeen, and Mohammad Sherif Mohammad. “A Fuzzy-Based Decision Support System for Ranking the Delivery Methods of Mega Projects.” International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 11, no. 1 (March 5, 2018): 122–143. doi:10.1108/ijmpb-06-2017-0055.
Chen, Zhen. "ANP Models and Steep Criteria." In Arcom Research Workshop on Decision-Making across Levels, Time and Space: Exploring Theories, Methods, p. 46. 2010.
Khumpaisal, Sukulpat, Mohd Noor Nazali, Zairul Musa Nisham, and Andrew David Ross. “AN APPLICATION OF THE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS TO ASSESS RISKS IN A MEGA-CONSTRUCTION PROJECT.” International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process 2, no. 2 (December 31, 2010). doi:10.13033/ijahp.v2i2.43.
Enshassi, Adnan, Jomah Al‐Najjar, and Mohan Kumaraswamy. “Delays and Cost Overruns in the Construction Projects in the Gaza Strip.” Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction 14, no. 2 (July 31, 2009): 126–151. doi:10.1108/13664380910977592.
Eybpoosh, Matineh, Irem Dikmen, and M. Talat Birgonul. “Identification of Risk Paths in International Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 137, no. 12 (December 2011): 1164–1175. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000382.
Goh, Cheng Siew, Hamzah Abdul-Rahman, and Zulkiflee Abdul Samad. “Applying Risk Management Workshop for a Public Construction Project: Case Study.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 139, no. 5 (May 2013): 572–580. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000599.
Kwak, Young Hoon, John Walewski, Dana Sleeper, and Hessam Sadatsafavi. “What Can We Learn from the Hoover Dam Project That Influenced Modern Project Management?” International Journal of Project Management 32, no. 2 (February 2014): 256–264. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.04.002.
Nielsen, Karina, and Raymond Randall. “Opening the Black Box: Presenting a Model for Evaluating Organizational-Level Interventions.” European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology 22, no. 5 (October 2013): 601–617. doi:10.1080/1359432x.2012.690556.
Sun, Ming, and Xianhai Meng. “Taxonomy for Change Causes and Effects in Construction Projects.” International Journal of Project Management 27, no. 6 (August 2009): 560–572. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.10.005.
Banerjee, Debalina, P Jagadeesh, and Rama Mohana P Rao. “A Review of System Dynamic Model for Risk Assessment in Construction of Megaprojects in India.” International Journal of Technology 5, no. 2 (2015): 86. doi:10.5958/2231-3915.2015.00002.4.
Funderburg, Richard G., Hilary Nixon, Marlon G. Boarnet, and Gavin Ferguson. “New Highways and Land Use Change: Results from a Quasi-Experimental Research Design.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 44, no. 2 (February 2010): 76–98. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.003.
Rezakhani, Pejman. “Fuzzy MCDM Model for Risk Factor Selection in Construction Projects.” Engineering Journal 16, no. 5 (October 1, 2012): 79–94. doi:10.4186/ej.2012.16.5.79.
Trapenberg Frick, Karen. “The Cost of the Technological Sublime: Daring Ingenuity and the New San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge.” Decision-Making on Mega-Projects (2008). doi:10.4337/9781848440173.00020.
Mylonas, Chrysostomos, and Yiannis Xenidis. "Megaproject development in the context of sustainable urban regeneration." RELAND: International Journal of Real Estate & Land Planning 1 (2018): 377-384.
Hrustalev, Boris, Angelina Moses, and Tatiana Uchaeva. “Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Modelling of Complex Building Systems.” Edited by A. Mottaeva and B. Melović. MATEC Web of Conferences 193 (2018): 05028. doi:10.1051/matecconf/201819305028.
Siemiatycki, Matti. “The Making and Impacts of a Classic Text in Megaproject Management: The Case of Cost Overrun Research.” International Journal of Project Management 36, no. 2 (February 2018): 362–371. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.07.003.
Plácido, Jânio, et al. "Quantitative Risk Analysis in Megaprojects Schedules: a critical comparison between the theoretical findings and the empirical evidence from a Brazilian oil and gas company." The Journal of Modern Project Management 6, no. 2 (2018).
Shenhar, Aaron, and Vered Holzmann. “The Three Secrets of Megaproject Success: Clear Strategic Vision, Total Alignment, and Adapting to Complexity.” Project Management Journal 48, no. 6 (December 2017): 29–46. doi:10.1177/875697281704800604.
DOI: 10.28991/cej-2019-03091330
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2019 ashraf norouzi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
