Analyzing the Future Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological Parameters Using the LARS-WG Model
Vol. 10 No. 11 (2024): November
Research Articles
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Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2024-010-11-019
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Dheyaa, M. A., Al-Mukhtar, M. M., & Shemal, K. (2024). Analyzing the Future Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological Parameters Using the LARS-WG Model. Civil Engineering Journal, 10(11), 3754–3778. https://doi.org/10.28991/CEJ-2024-010-11-019
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[1] Al-Mukhtar, M., Dunger, V., & Merkel, B. (2014). Evaluation of the climate generator model CLIGEN for rainfall data simulation in Bautzen catchment area, Germany. Hydrology Research, 45(4–5), 615–630. doi:10.2166/nh.2013.073.
[2] Jabal, Z. K., Khayyun, T. S., & Alwan, I. A. (2022). Impact of Climate Change on Crops Productivity Using MODIS-NDVI Time Series. Civil Engineering Journal (Iran), 8(6), 1136–1156. doi:10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-06-04.
[3] Sabah, N., Al-Mukhtar, M., & Shemal, K. (2023). Implementing Management Practices for Enhancing Water-Food Nexus Under Climate Change. Civil Engineering Journal (Iran), 9(12), 3108–3122. doi:10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-12-010.
[4] Sissakian, V. K., Jassim, H. M., Adamo, N., & Ansari, N. Al. (2022). Consequences of the Climate Change in Iraq. Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 22(2), 13–25. doi:10.34257/gjhssbvol22is2pg13.
[5] Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., ... Tavoni, M. (2018). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °c. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 325–332. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3.
[6] Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., ... Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
[7] Touzé-Peiffer, L., Barberousse, A., & Le Treut, H. (2020). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(4), 648. doi:10.1002/wcc.648.
[8] Hassan, W. H., & Nile, B. K. (2021). Climate change and predicting future temperature in Iraq using CanESM2 and HadCM3 modeling. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7(2), 737–748. doi:10.1007/s40808-020-01034-y.
[9] Namdar, R., Karami, E., & Keshavarz, M. (2021). Climate change and vulnerability: The case of MENA countries. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 10(11), 794. doi:10.3390/ijgi10110794.
[10] Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., & Jafary, F. (2020). Climate change scenarios and effects on snow-melt runoff. Civil Engineering Journal, 6(9), 1715–1725. doi:10.28991/cej-2020-03091577.
[11] Adamo, N., Al-Ansari, N., Sissakian, V., Fahmi, K. J., & Abed, S. A. (2022). Climate Change: Droughts and Increasing Desertification in the Middle East, with Special Reference to Iraq. Engineering, 14(07), 235–273. doi:10.4236/eng.2022.147021.
[12] Tarawneh, Q., & Chowdhury, S. (2018). Trends of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Implications on Water Resources. Climate, 6(1), 8. doi:10.3390/cli6010008.
[13] Hassan, W. H., & Hashim, F. S. (2020). The effect of climate change on the maximum temperature in Southwest Iraq using HadCM3 and CanESM2 modelling. SN Applied Sciences, 2(9), 1494. doi:10.1007/s42452-020-03302-z.
[14] Usta, D. F. B., Teymouri, M., Chatterjee, U., & Koley, B. (2022). Temperature projections over Iran during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8(1), 749–760. doi:10.1007/s40808-021-01115-6.
[15] Afshar, M. H., Šžorman, A. íœ., Tosunoğlu, F., Bulut, B., Yilmaz, M. T., & Danandeh Mehr, A. (2020). Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 141(3–4), 1045–1055. doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03257-6.
[16] Wilby, R. L. (1999). The weather generation game: A review of stochastic weather models. Progress in Physical Geography, 23(3), 329–357. doi:10.1177/030913339902300302.
[17] Hamidi Machekposhti, K., Sedghi, H., Telvari, A., & Babazadeh, H. (2018). Modeling Climate Variables of Rivers Basin using Time Series Analysis (Case Study: Karkheh River Basin at Iran). Civil Engineering Journal, 4(1), 78. doi:10.28991/cej-030970.
[18] Vallam, P., & Qin, X. S. (2018). Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134(1–2), 669–688. doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2299-y.
[19] Beecham, S., Rashid, M., & Chowdhury, R. K. (2014). Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model. International Journal of Climatology, 34(14), 3654–3670. doi:10.1002/joc.3933.
[20] Birara, H., Pandey, R. P., & Mishra, S. K. (2020). Projections of future rainfall and temperature using statistical downscaling techniques in Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 6(5), 77. doi:10.1007/s40899-020-00436-1.
[21] Osman, Y., Al-Ansari, N., Abdellatif, M., Aljawad, S. B., & Knutsson, S. (2014). Expected Future Precipitation in Central Iraq Using LARS-WG Stochastic Weather Generator. Engineering, 06(13), 948–959. doi:10.4236/eng.2014.613086.
[22] Saddique, N., Bernhofer, C., Kronenberg, R., & Usman, M. (2019). Downscaling of CMIP5 Models Output by Using Statistical Models in a Data Scarce Mountain Environment (Mangla Dam Watershed), Northern Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 55(4), 719–735. doi:10.1007/s13143-019-00111-2.
[23] Whitehead, P. G., Barbour, E., Futter, M. N., Sarkar, S., Rodda, H., Caesar, J., Butterfield, D., Jin, L., Sinha, R., Nicholls, R., & Salehin, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: Low flow and flood statistics. Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts, 17(6), 1057–1069. doi:10.1039/c4em00619d.
[24] Haitham, L., & Al-Mukhtar, M. (2022). Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Khabour River Catchment, North of Iraq. Engineering and Technology Journal, 40(5), 695–709. doi:10.30684/etj.v40i5.1925.
[25] Munawar, S., Rahman, G., Moazzam, M. F. U., Miandad, M., Ullah, K., Al-Ansari, N., & Linh, N. T. T. (2022). Future Climate Projections Using SDSM and LARS-WG Downscaling Methods for CMIP5 GCMs over the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin of the Himalayas Region. Atmosphere, 13(6), 898. doi:10.3390/atmos13060898.
[26] Semenov, M. A., Senapati, N., Coleman, K., & Collins, A. L. (2024). A dataset of CMIP6-based climate scenarios for climate change impact assessment in Great Britain. Data in Brief, 55. doi:10.1016/j.dib.2024.110709.
[27] Shahi, S., Hosseini, K., & Mousavi, S. F. (2024). Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation using CMIP6 models (case study: Damghan, Iran). Journal of Hydraulic and Water Engineering, 1(2), 163-177.
[28] Nouri, L., Mahtabi, G., Hosseini, S. H., & Prasad, C. V. S. R. (2024). Hydrological responses to future climate change in semi-arid region of Iran (Golabar and Taham Basins, Zanjan Province). Results in Engineering, 21. doi:10.1016/j.rineng.2024.101871.
[29] Muhaisen, N., Khayyun, T., & Al-Mukhtar, M. (2024). Drought forecasting model for future climate change effects in a regional catchment area in northern Iraq. Engineering and Technology Journal, 42(05), 1–15. doi:10.30684/etj.2024.144458.1634.
[30] Al-Hasani, B., Abdellatif, M., Carnacina, I., Harris, C., Al-Quraishi, A., Maaroof, B. F., & Zubaidi, S. L. (2024). Integrated geospatial approach for adaptive rainwater harvesting site. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 38, 1009–1033.
[31] Saeed, F. H., Al-Khafaji, M. S., & Al-Faraj, F. (2022). Hydrologic response of arid and semi-arid river basins in Iraq under a changing climate. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(3), 1225–1240. doi:10.2166/wcc.2022.418.
[32] Semenov, M. A., Brooks, R. J., Barrow, E. M., & Richardson, C. W. (1998). Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Climate Research, 10(2), 95–107. doi:10.3354/cr010095.
[33] Hassan, W. H., Nile, B. K., Kadhim, Z. K., Mahdi, K., Riksen, M., & Thiab, R. F. (2023). Trends, forecasting and adaptation strategies of climate change in the middle and west regions of Iraq. SN Applied Sciences, 5(12), 312. doi:10.1007/s42452-023-05544-z.
[34] Semenov, M. A., & Barrow, E. M. (1997). Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35(4), 397–414. doi:10.1023/A:1005342632279.
[35] Muhaisen, N. Kh., Khayyun, T. Sh., Al Mukhtar, M., & Hassan, W. H. (2024). Forecasting changes in precipitation and temperatures of a regional watershed in Northern Iraq using LARS-WG model. Open Engineering, 14(1), 20220567. doi:10.1515/eng-2022-0567.
[36] Al-Maliki, L. A., Al-Mamoori, S. K., Al-Ansari, N., El-Tawel, K., & Comair, F. G. (2022). Climate change impact on water resources of Iraq (a review of literature). IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1120(1), 012025. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1120/1/012025.
[2] Jabal, Z. K., Khayyun, T. S., & Alwan, I. A. (2022). Impact of Climate Change on Crops Productivity Using MODIS-NDVI Time Series. Civil Engineering Journal (Iran), 8(6), 1136–1156. doi:10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-06-04.
[3] Sabah, N., Al-Mukhtar, M., & Shemal, K. (2023). Implementing Management Practices for Enhancing Water-Food Nexus Under Climate Change. Civil Engineering Journal (Iran), 9(12), 3108–3122. doi:10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-12-010.
[4] Sissakian, V. K., Jassim, H. M., Adamo, N., & Ansari, N. Al. (2022). Consequences of the Climate Change in Iraq. Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 22(2), 13–25. doi:10.34257/gjhssbvol22is2pg13.
[5] Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., ... Tavoni, M. (2018). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °c. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 325–332. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3.
[6] Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., ... Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
[7] Touzé-Peiffer, L., Barberousse, A., & Le Treut, H. (2020). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(4), 648. doi:10.1002/wcc.648.
[8] Hassan, W. H., & Nile, B. K. (2021). Climate change and predicting future temperature in Iraq using CanESM2 and HadCM3 modeling. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7(2), 737–748. doi:10.1007/s40808-020-01034-y.
[9] Namdar, R., Karami, E., & Keshavarz, M. (2021). Climate change and vulnerability: The case of MENA countries. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 10(11), 794. doi:10.3390/ijgi10110794.
[10] Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., & Jafary, F. (2020). Climate change scenarios and effects on snow-melt runoff. Civil Engineering Journal, 6(9), 1715–1725. doi:10.28991/cej-2020-03091577.
[11] Adamo, N., Al-Ansari, N., Sissakian, V., Fahmi, K. J., & Abed, S. A. (2022). Climate Change: Droughts and Increasing Desertification in the Middle East, with Special Reference to Iraq. Engineering, 14(07), 235–273. doi:10.4236/eng.2022.147021.
[12] Tarawneh, Q., & Chowdhury, S. (2018). Trends of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Implications on Water Resources. Climate, 6(1), 8. doi:10.3390/cli6010008.
[13] Hassan, W. H., & Hashim, F. S. (2020). The effect of climate change on the maximum temperature in Southwest Iraq using HadCM3 and CanESM2 modelling. SN Applied Sciences, 2(9), 1494. doi:10.1007/s42452-020-03302-z.
[14] Usta, D. F. B., Teymouri, M., Chatterjee, U., & Koley, B. (2022). Temperature projections over Iran during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8(1), 749–760. doi:10.1007/s40808-021-01115-6.
[15] Afshar, M. H., Šžorman, A. íœ., Tosunoğlu, F., Bulut, B., Yilmaz, M. T., & Danandeh Mehr, A. (2020). Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 141(3–4), 1045–1055. doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03257-6.
[16] Wilby, R. L. (1999). The weather generation game: A review of stochastic weather models. Progress in Physical Geography, 23(3), 329–357. doi:10.1177/030913339902300302.
[17] Hamidi Machekposhti, K., Sedghi, H., Telvari, A., & Babazadeh, H. (2018). Modeling Climate Variables of Rivers Basin using Time Series Analysis (Case Study: Karkheh River Basin at Iran). Civil Engineering Journal, 4(1), 78. doi:10.28991/cej-030970.
[18] Vallam, P., & Qin, X. S. (2018). Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134(1–2), 669–688. doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2299-y.
[19] Beecham, S., Rashid, M., & Chowdhury, R. K. (2014). Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model. International Journal of Climatology, 34(14), 3654–3670. doi:10.1002/joc.3933.
[20] Birara, H., Pandey, R. P., & Mishra, S. K. (2020). Projections of future rainfall and temperature using statistical downscaling techniques in Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 6(5), 77. doi:10.1007/s40899-020-00436-1.
[21] Osman, Y., Al-Ansari, N., Abdellatif, M., Aljawad, S. B., & Knutsson, S. (2014). Expected Future Precipitation in Central Iraq Using LARS-WG Stochastic Weather Generator. Engineering, 06(13), 948–959. doi:10.4236/eng.2014.613086.
[22] Saddique, N., Bernhofer, C., Kronenberg, R., & Usman, M. (2019). Downscaling of CMIP5 Models Output by Using Statistical Models in a Data Scarce Mountain Environment (Mangla Dam Watershed), Northern Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 55(4), 719–735. doi:10.1007/s13143-019-00111-2.
[23] Whitehead, P. G., Barbour, E., Futter, M. N., Sarkar, S., Rodda, H., Caesar, J., Butterfield, D., Jin, L., Sinha, R., Nicholls, R., & Salehin, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: Low flow and flood statistics. Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts, 17(6), 1057–1069. doi:10.1039/c4em00619d.
[24] Haitham, L., & Al-Mukhtar, M. (2022). Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Khabour River Catchment, North of Iraq. Engineering and Technology Journal, 40(5), 695–709. doi:10.30684/etj.v40i5.1925.
[25] Munawar, S., Rahman, G., Moazzam, M. F. U., Miandad, M., Ullah, K., Al-Ansari, N., & Linh, N. T. T. (2022). Future Climate Projections Using SDSM and LARS-WG Downscaling Methods for CMIP5 GCMs over the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin of the Himalayas Region. Atmosphere, 13(6), 898. doi:10.3390/atmos13060898.
[26] Semenov, M. A., Senapati, N., Coleman, K., & Collins, A. L. (2024). A dataset of CMIP6-based climate scenarios for climate change impact assessment in Great Britain. Data in Brief, 55. doi:10.1016/j.dib.2024.110709.
[27] Shahi, S., Hosseini, K., & Mousavi, S. F. (2024). Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation using CMIP6 models (case study: Damghan, Iran). Journal of Hydraulic and Water Engineering, 1(2), 163-177.
[28] Nouri, L., Mahtabi, G., Hosseini, S. H., & Prasad, C. V. S. R. (2024). Hydrological responses to future climate change in semi-arid region of Iran (Golabar and Taham Basins, Zanjan Province). Results in Engineering, 21. doi:10.1016/j.rineng.2024.101871.
[29] Muhaisen, N., Khayyun, T., & Al-Mukhtar, M. (2024). Drought forecasting model for future climate change effects in a regional catchment area in northern Iraq. Engineering and Technology Journal, 42(05), 1–15. doi:10.30684/etj.2024.144458.1634.
[30] Al-Hasani, B., Abdellatif, M., Carnacina, I., Harris, C., Al-Quraishi, A., Maaroof, B. F., & Zubaidi, S. L. (2024). Integrated geospatial approach for adaptive rainwater harvesting site. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 38, 1009–1033.
[31] Saeed, F. H., Al-Khafaji, M. S., & Al-Faraj, F. (2022). Hydrologic response of arid and semi-arid river basins in Iraq under a changing climate. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(3), 1225–1240. doi:10.2166/wcc.2022.418.
[32] Semenov, M. A., Brooks, R. J., Barrow, E. M., & Richardson, C. W. (1998). Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Climate Research, 10(2), 95–107. doi:10.3354/cr010095.
[33] Hassan, W. H., Nile, B. K., Kadhim, Z. K., Mahdi, K., Riksen, M., & Thiab, R. F. (2023). Trends, forecasting and adaptation strategies of climate change in the middle and west regions of Iraq. SN Applied Sciences, 5(12), 312. doi:10.1007/s42452-023-05544-z.
[34] Semenov, M. A., & Barrow, E. M. (1997). Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35(4), 397–414. doi:10.1023/A:1005342632279.
[35] Muhaisen, N. Kh., Khayyun, T. Sh., Al Mukhtar, M., & Hassan, W. H. (2024). Forecasting changes in precipitation and temperatures of a regional watershed in Northern Iraq using LARS-WG model. Open Engineering, 14(1), 20220567. doi:10.1515/eng-2022-0567.
[36] Al-Maliki, L. A., Al-Mamoori, S. K., Al-Ansari, N., El-Tawel, K., & Comair, F. G. (2022). Climate change impact on water resources of Iraq (a review of literature). IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1120(1), 012025. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1120/1/012025.
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