Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks Method on Risk Assessment of EPC Pipeline Project

Muhammad Yusuf; Yusuf Latief; Ayomi Dita Rarasati; Bambang Trigunarsyah; Naufal Budi Laksono

doi:10.28991/CEJ-2025-011-03-013

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Muhammad Yusuf
Muhammad.yusuf213@ui.ac.id
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, 16424,, Indonesia
Yusuf Latief Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, 16424,, Indonesia
Ayomi Dita Rarasati Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, 16424,, Indonesia
Bambang Trigunarsyah School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University, VIC 3000,, Australia
Naufal Budi Laksono Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, 16424,, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5936-1443

Vol. 11 No. 3 (2025): March

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Subsea gas pipeline projects are experiencing significant technical and managerial challenges across Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) phases. To address the challenges, effective risk management in the early project phases is essential to mitigating cascading failures that cause significant schedule delay and cost overrun. Therefore, this study aimed to apply the Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks (FBBNs) method to model risk assessment during EPC phases. The findings showed that FBBNs made it possible for a new way to evaluate risks, find interdependencies, and guess what would happen next, which created a strong framework for reducing risk. Based on probabilistic analysis as supported by expert elicitation, risks from the early phase of engineering and procurement showed high probabilities of occurrence, including Incompetent Personnel, Project Mismanagement, Unsupportive Stakeholder, Corruption, and Design Inaccuracies. A significant impact was also observed on Construction Rework, Material Quantity Increase, Construction Delay, and Cost Overrun. The results showed the importance of addressing systemic issues early in the EPC project lifecycle, emphasizing personnel competency, design accuracy, strategic and project management planning, procurement management, stakeholder management, and constructability preparation to reduce vulnerabilities. This integrated method aimed to enhance accuracy predictions by determining causal risk probability relationships in high-risk offshore environments of EPC subsea gas pipeline projects.

Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2025-011-03-013

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Yusuf, M., Latief, Y., Rarasati, A. D., Trigunarsyah, B., & Laksono, N. B. (2025). Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks Method on Risk Assessment of EPC Pipeline Project. Civil Engineering Journal, 11(3), 1050–1071. https://doi.org/10.28991/CEJ-2025-011-03-013

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Publication Start Year:	2015
JCR 2023 Impact Factor (IF):	4.3
JIF QUARTILE:	Q1
SJR 2023 Quartile:	Q1
Acceptance Rate:	27%
Review Speed (Average):	76 days
Issue Per Year:	12
Number of Volumes:	10
Number of Issues:	107
Number of Articles:	1552
Number of Reviewers:	3417
Number of Contributors:	3604
Contributing Countries:	86
No. of WoS Citations:	7986
WoS h-index:	34
Scopus CiteScore:	7.0
No. of Google Citations:	17324
Google h-index:	47
Google i10-index:	393
Abstract Views:	5,819,908
PDF Download:	3,790,637

Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks Method on Risk Assessment of EPC Pipeline Project

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