Predicting Project Success in Residential Building Projects (RBPs) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)
Vol. 6 No. 11 (2020): November
Research Articles
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Due to the urban population's growth and increasing demand for the renewal of old houses, the successful completion of Residential Building Projects (RBPs) has great socioeconomic importance. This study aims to propose a framework to predict the success of RBPs in the construction phase. Therefore, a 3-step method was applied: (1) Identifying and ranking Critical Success Factors (CSFs) involving in RBPs using the Delphi method, (2) Identifying and selecting success criteria and defining the Project Success Index (PSI), and (3) Developing an ANN model to predict the success of RBPs according to the status of CSFs during the construction phase. The model was trained and tested using the data extracted from 121 RBPs in Tehran. The main findings of this study were a prioritized list of most influential success criteria and an efficient ANN model as a Decision Support System (DSS) in RBPs to monitor the projects in advance and take necessary corrective actions. Compared with previous studies on the success assessment of projects, this study is more focused on providing an applicable method for predicting the success of RBPs.
Doi: 10.28991/cej-2020-03091612
Full Text: PDF
Youneszadeh, H., Ardeshir, A., & Sebt, M. H. (2020). Predicting Project Success in Residential Building Projects (RBPs) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Civil Engineering Journal, 6(11), 2203–2219. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2020-03091612
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[4] Baccarini, David. "The Logical Framework Method for Defining Project Success.” Project Management Journal 30, no. 4 (December 1999): 25–32. doi:10.1177/875697289903000405.
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[12] Khang, Do Ba, and Tun Lin Moe. "Success Criteria and Factors for International Development Projects: A Life-Cycle-Based Framework.” Project Management Journal 39, no. 1 (March 2008): 72–84. doi:10.1002/pmj.20034.
[13] Tabish, S., and K. Jha. "Important factors for success of public construction projects.” 2nd International Conference on Construction and Project Management IPEDR. Singapore: IACSIT Press. (2011).
[14] Cheong Yong, Yee, and Nur Emma Mustaffa. "Analysis of Factors Critical to Construction Project Success in Malaysia.” Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 19, no. 5 (August 31, 2012): 543–556. doi:10.1108/09699981211259612.
[15] Garbharran, H., Govender, J. & MSANI T. Critical success factors influencing project success in the construction industry. ActaStrutilia. Vol 19. No. 2, (2012): 90-108.
[16] Gunathilaka, S., M. M. Tuuli, and A. R. Dainty. "Critical Analysis of Research on Project Success.” Construction Management Journals,(September, 2013): 979-988.
[17] Olawumi, Timothy O., and Daniel W.M. Chan. "Critical Success Factors for Implementing Building Information Modeling and Sustainability Practices in Construction Projects: A Delphi Survey.” Sustainable Development 27, no. 4 (January 3, 2019): 587–602. doi:10.1002/sd.1925.
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[19] GudienÄ—, Neringa, Audrius Banaitis, Valentinas Podvezko, and Nerija BanaitienÄ—. "Identification and Evaluation of the Critical Success Factors for Construction Projects in Lithuania: AHP Approach.” Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 20, no. 3 (June 9, 2014): 350–359. doi:10.3846/13923730.2014.914082.
[20] Maqbool, Rashid, and Ye Sudong. "Critical Success Factors for Renewable Energy Projects; Empirical Evidence from Pakistan.” Journal of Cleaner Production 195 (September 2018): 991–1002. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.274.
[21] Murtagh, Shauna R, and Tara Brooks. "Critical Success Factors for Social Value in Construction Procurement in Northern Ireland.” Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Management, Procurement and Law 172, no. 5 (October 1, 2019): 183–196. doi:10.1680/jmapl.19.00005.
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[25] Kiani Mavi, Reza, and Craig Standing. "Critical Success Factors of Sustainable Project Management in Construction: A Fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP Approach.” Journal of Cleaner Production 194 (September 2018): 751–765. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.120.
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[27] Ahmadabadi, Ali Akbari, and Gholamreza Heravi. "The Effect of Critical Success Factors on Project Success in Public-Private Partnership Projects: A Case Study of Highway Projects in Iran.” Transport Policy 73 (January 2019): 152–161. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.07.004.
[28] Frödell, Mikael, Per-Erik Josephson, and Göran Lindahl. "Swedish construction clients' views on project success and measuring performance.” Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology 6.1 (2008): 21-32. doi: 10.1108/17260530810863316.
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[30] Dyson, Kristy, Jane Matthews, and Peter E.D. Love. "Critical Success Factors of Adapting Heritage Buildings: An Exploratory Study.” Built Environment Project and Asset Management 6, no. 1 (February 2016): 44–57. doi:10.1108/bepam-01-2015-0002.
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[32] Atkinson, Roger. "Project Management: Cost, Time and Quality, Two Best Guesses and a Phenomenon, Its Time to Accept Other Success Criteria.” International Journal of Project Management 17, no. 6 (December 1999): 337–342. doi:10.1016/s0263-7863(98)00069-6.
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[35] Tabassi, Amin Akhavan, Kamand M. Roufechaei, Mahyuddin Ramli, Abu Hassan Abu Bakar, Radzi Ismail, and A. Hamid Kadir Pakir. "Leadership Competences of Sustainable Construction Project Managers.” Journal of Cleaner Production 124 (June 2016): 339–349. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.076.
[36] Osei-Kyei, Robert, Albert P. C. Chan, Arshad Ali Javed, and Ernest Effah Ameyaw. "Critical Success Criteria for Public-Private Partnership Projects: International Experts' Opinion.” International Journal of Strategic Property Management 21, no. 1 (January 2, 2017): 87–100. doi:10.3846/1648715x.2016.1246388.
[37] Ofori-Kuragu, Joseph Kwame, Bernard Kofi Baiden, and Edward Badu. "Key Performance Indicators for Project Success in Ghanaian Contractors.” International Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 5.1 (2016): 1-10.
[38] Ihuah, Paulinus Woka, Iyenemi Ibimina Kakulu, and David Eaton. "A Review of Critical Project Management Success Factors (CPMSF) for Sustainable Social Housing in Nigeria.” International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 3, no. 1 (June 2014): 62–71. doi:10.1016/j.ijsbe.2014.08.001.
[39] Jiboye, Adesoji David. "Achieving sustainable housing development in Nigeria: A Critical challenge to governance.” International Journal of Humanities and social science 1.9 (2011): 121-127
[40] Mukhtar, Musa M., Roslan Bin Amirudin, Trevor Sofield, and Ismail Bin Mohamad. "Critical Success Factors for Public Housing Projects in Developing Countries: a Case Study of Nigeria.” Environment, Development and Sustainability 19, no. 5 (August 4, 2016): 2039–2067. doi:10.1007/s10668-016-9843-2.
[41] Habitat, U. N. "World Cities Report 2016: Urbanization and Development–Emerging Futures." Publisher: UN-Habitat (2016).
[42] Ademiluyi, I. A. "Public housing delivery strategies in Nigeria: A historical perspective of policies and programs.” Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa 12.6 (2010): 153-161.
[43] Makinde, Olusola Oladapo. "Housing Delivery System, Need and Demand.” Environment, Development and Sustainability 16, no. 1 (July 3, 2013): 49–69. doi:10.1007/s10668-013-9474-9.
[44] Boussabaine, A. H., R. Thomas, and T. M. S. Elhag. "Modelling Cost-Flow Forecasting for Water Pipeline Projects Using Neural Networks.” Engineering Construction and Architectural Management 6, no. 3 (September 1999): 213–224. doi:10.1046/j.1365-232x.1999.00106.x.
[45] Mitchell, R. S., J. G. Michalski, and T. M. Carbonell. An artificial intelligence approach. Springer, Berlin, (2013).
[46] Ahmad, Muhammad Fayyaz, Sajjad Haydar, Amanat Ali Bhatti, and Abdul Jabbar Bari. "Application of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Biosorption Capacity of Immobilized Bacillus Subtilis for the Removal of Cadmium Ions from Aqueous Solution.” Biochemical Engineering Journal 84 (March 2014): 83–90. doi:10.1016/j.bej.2014.01.004.
[47] Morellos, Antonios, Xanthoula-Eirini Pantazi, Dimitrios Moshou, Thomas Alexandridis, Rebecca Whetton, Georgios Tziotzios, Jens Wiebensohn, Ralf Bill, and Abdul M. Mouazen. "Machine Learning Based Prediction of Soil Total Nitrogen, Organic Carbon and Moisture Content by Using VIS-NIR Spectroscopy.” Biosystems Engineering 152 (December 2016): 104–116. doi:10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2016.04.018.
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