A Proposal Model for Estimation of Project Success in Terms of Radial Based Neural Networks: A Case Study in Iran
Abstract
For improving the conditions of project intended purpose and reaching high score in the project success, project Stakeholders (including employer, contractor, consultant and its users) try to comply with the implementation of project Critical Success Factors(CSFs) at the beginning of each project. This implementation is in two terms: economic and executive. Artificial neural networks are one of the new methods which have been developed to estimate and predict parameters by using inherent relationship among data. In this research, it tried to propose a model to determine the project success score by using radial basis neural networks. For reaching this purpose, firstly, the key indicators of project success (employer, contractor and consultant) among the main elements involved in the industry of macro-civil construction projects in Iran reviewed. Secondly, ten CSFs key project success indicators were recognized in five categories: (i) financial, (ii) interaction processes, (iii) manpower, (iv) contract settings and (v) characteristic nature of the project (based on conditions of the present research in Iran). Then, some projects were selected by random sampling of projects operated during the last 5 years in the country's Ministry of Energy. Among those projects, project information was collected by managers of large projects. After training the designed neural network, the project success model was provided based on an assessment of project objectives including factors of Scope, Time, Cost, and Quality of the projects. For facilitating other researches’ use, the applied equation of the model was presented as well. Outputs, calculated by the proposed model, were in good agreement with the actual number of projects assessed in Iran. The results of this study may be used as a tool in implementing projects for the rapid assessment of achieving project goals’ facilities.
Keywords
References
Udwadia, F. E. & Trifunac, M. D. Ambient Vibration Test of Full Scale Structures, Proc. of the 5th World Conf. On Earthquake Engineering, Rome, pp, 1973.
Lim, C. S., and M. Zain Mohamed. "Criteria of project success: an exploratory re-examination." International journal of project management 17, no. 4 (1999): 243-248.
Project Management Institute. Guide to Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK 5th edition, 2012.
Tuman, J. "Success modeling: A technique for building a winning project team, Proc.", 18th Annual Seminar/Symposium, Project Management Institute, Montreal, Canada, (1986): 29–34.
De Wit, A. Measuring project success: An illusion, Proc., 18th Annual Seminar/Symposium, Project Management Institute, Montreal, Canada, 13–21, 1986.
Ashley, D. B., Laurie, C. S., and Jaselskis, E. J. "Determinants of Construction Project Success", Proj. Manage. J., 18(2), (1987): 69–79.
Pocock, J. B., Hyun, C. T., Liu, L. Y., and Kim, M. K. "Relationship between project interaction and performance indicator", J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 122(2), (1996): 165–176.
Wuellner, William W. "Project performance evaluation checklist for consulting engineers." Journal of Management in Engineering 6, no. 3 (1990): 270-281.
Pinto, Jeffrey K., and Dennis P. Slevin. "Critical factors in successful project implementation." IEEE transactions on engineering management 1 (1987): 22-27.
Kerzner, H. In search of excellence in project management, Wiley, New York, 1998.
Pheng, Low Sui, and Quek Tai Chuan. "Environmental factors and work performance of project managers in the construction industry." International journal of project management 24, no. 1 (2006): 24-37.
Rockart, J. F. "The changing role of the information systems executive: A critical success factors perspective", Sloan Manage. Rev., 24(1), (1982): 3–13.
Sanvido, V., Parfitt, K., Guveris, M., and Coyle, M. "Critical Success Factors for Construction Projects", J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 118(1), (1992): 94–111.
Ghosh, B. C., Liang, T. W., Meng, T. T., and Chan, B. "The key success factors, distinctive capabilities, and strategic thrusts of top SMEs in Singapore", J. Bus. Res., 51, (2001): 209–221.
Toor, Shamas-ur-Rehman, and Stephen O. Ogunlana. "Construction professionals' perception of critical success factors for large-scale construction projects." Construction Innovation 9, no. 2 (2009): 149-167.
Chua, D. K. H., Y. C. Kog, P. K. Loh, and E. J. Jaselskis. "Model for construction budget performance—Neural network approach." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 123, no. 3 (1997): 214-222.
Chua, David Kim Huat, Yue-Choong Kog, and Ping Kit Loh. "Critical success factors for different project objectives." Journal of construction engineering and management 125, no. 3 (1999): 142-150.
Ahadzie, D., Proverbs, D., and Olomolaiye, P. "Critical Success Criteria for Mass Housing Building Projects in Developing Countries", International Journal of Project Management, 26(6), (2007): 675-687.
Joss, Simon, and Arthur P. Molella. "The eco-city as urban technology: Perspectives on Caofeidian international eco-city (China)." Journal of Urban Technology 20, no. 1 (2013): 115-137.
Khanna N, Fridley D, Hong L. "China’s pilot low-carbon city initiative: a comparative assessment of national goals and local plans". Sustainable Cities Soc., 12, (2014):110–121.
Junying Liu, Sui Pheng Low & Lin Fei Wang. "Critical success factors for eco-city development in China", International Journal of Construction Management, (2017), DOI: 10.1080/15623599.2017.1351731
Mukhtar, M.M., Amirudin, R.B., Sofield, T., Mohamad, I.B. "Critical success factors for public housing projects in developing countries: a case study of Nigeria", Environment, Development and Sustainability Journal, (2016), DOI: 10.1007/s10668-016- 98432.
Shen, W., Tang, W., Siripanan, A., Lei, Z., Duffield, C.F., Wilson, D., Hui, F.K.P., and Wei, Y. "Critical Success Factors in Thailand's Green Building Industry", Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering., (2017) Vol. 16, No. 2, p. 317-324.
Yang, J., Nisar, T. and Prabhakar, G. P. "Critical success factors for build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects in China", Irish Journal of Management, (2017), http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/28453.
Pinto, Jeffrey K., and Samuel J. Mantel. "The causes of project failure." IEEE transactions on engineering management 37, no. 4 (1990): 269-276.
Mohsini, R. A., and Colin H. Davidson. "Determinants of performance in the traditional building process." Construction Management and Economics 10, no. 4 (1992): 343-359.
Ahmed, Syed M., and Roozbeh Kangari. "Analysis of client-satisfaction factors in construction industry." Journal of Management in Engineering 11, no. 2 (1995): 36-44.
Larson, Erik. "Project partnering: results of study of 280 construction projects." Journal of management in engineering 11, no. 2 (1995): 30-35.
Alarcon, Luis F., and David B. Ashley. "Modeling project performance for decision making." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 122, no. 3 (1996): 265-273.
Chan, D. W. M., and Kumaraswamy, M. M. "A Comparative Study of Causes of Time Overruns in Hong Kong Construction Projects", Int. J. Project Manage. 15(1), (1997), 55–63.
Iyer, K. C., and Jha, K. N. "Factors Affecting Cost Performance: Evidence from Indian Construction Projects", Int. J. Project Manage. 23(4), (2005): 283–295.
Lam, E. W. M., Chan, A. P. C., and Chan, D. W. M. "Determinants of Successful Design-Build Projects", J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 134(5), (2008): 333–341.
Pakseresht, A. and Asgari, G. "Determining the Critical Success Factors in Construction Projects: AHP Approach", Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 4(8), (2012): 383–393.
Adinyira, E., Botchway, E., and Kwofie, T. E. "Determining Critical Project Success Criteria for Public Housing Building Projects (PHBPS) in Ghana", Journal of Engineering Management Research, 1(2), (2012): 122-132.
Kog, Y. C. and Loh, P. K. "Critical Success Factors for Different Components of Construction Projects", J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 138(4), (2012): 520–528.
Hwang, B. G., and Lim, E. S. "Critical Success Factors for Key Project Players and Objectives: Case Study of Singapore", J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 139(2), (2013): 204–215.
Yong, Y. C., Mustaffa, N. E. "Critical Success Factors for Malaysian Construction Projects: An Empirical Assessment", Journal of Construction Management and Economics, 31(9), (2013) 959-978.
Kaveh, A., and Iranmanesh, A. Artificial Neural Networks in Optimization of Structures, Housing and Development Research Center of Iran, 1999.
Broomhead, D.S. and Lowe, D. Multivariable Functional Interpolation and Adaptive Networks, Complex Systems, Vol. 2, pp 1998, 321-355.
Wasserman, P. D. Advanced Methods in Neural Computing”, USA: Prentic Hall Company, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1993.
Kisi, O. Multi-layer perceptions with Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm for suspended sediment concentration prediction and estimation, 2004.
DOI: 10.28991/cej-030924
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2017 Hosein Naderpour, Mahdi Asgari, Ali Kheyroddin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.